Why the Run-Up to Prime Day Is the Worst Time to Shop on Amazon

Retailers have historically jacked up prices right before big sales. Amazon is no different.
Hand holding two cardboard boxes delivering them to the front door of a house
Photograph: Daria Nipot/Getty Images

As product experts, a large part of our job here at WIRED is to help you get the best products at the best prices. That includes helping you find great deals during massive sales events like Black Friday and, of course, Amazon Prime Day. If you're looking to get the best price on that gadget that's been sitting on your cart for months, it's important to know when to pull the trigger—and when not to. Other than a handful of good early Prime Day deals, now is almost certainly the time to hold your fire. (Editor's note: Amazon sent a statement about its pricing which has been added to the end of the story.)

Amazon, Walmart, and other major retailers tend to jack up pricing on all sorts of products that have long since sunk below their manufacturer’s suggested retail price ahead of a major sale. That way once you see it on the big day it looks like a really great deal—even when it would have been impossible to buy the product at the inflated price displayed even if you had tried. This isn't a new phenomenon, and it's not limited to online sellers. A Harvard business professor wrote a paper about the phenomenon in 2018. There have been unsuccessful class action suits against classic brick-and-mortar retailers like Kohl’s and JCPenney over the practice.

We do our best to guide you through this sale-price chicanery with our daily coverage and Prime Day posts, but we can’t do it all alone. There are plenty of ways you can prepare as a savvy buyer to get the best gear and still keep your budget intact, from timing your moves to grabbing last year’s best. Here are some helpful tips and tricks to follow now, and throughout the year, to save some serious dough.

Price Tracking Tools

If you're focused on prices and shopping on Amazon you should be using a price tracker to keep a close eye on product price drops (and jumps). The best options are Keepa (the one I use most often) and CamelCamelCamel. Both trackers are free and work across all the top browsers. (You can read our in-depth guide for more tips to find the best Amazon deals.)

While it’s true these tools are primarily for Amazon shopping, where Amazon goes many other retailers tend to follow, often including manufacturer sites. If you’re shopping outside the Amazon universe, there are some other good price tracking tools worth checking out, including deals sites like SlickDeals, Honey, and Pricerunner.com.

While none of these tools or specialty sites is perfect, they can all be helpful in keeping you aware of what is a good deal and what isn’t.

Pick Your Moment

While price tracking is key, it’s important to know the best times of year to shop. As mentioned above, you’ll generally want to hold back on buying big-ticket items, especially tech gear, just before a major sales event like Amazon Prime Day, which this year is scheduled for July 16 and 17.

The same is generally true for other big-store events like Wayfair Day, as well as general sales based around holidays like Labor Day and Presidents Day. Not only is the product you’re after often being sold at a higher price than it would be during the big sale, it may well be jacked up to its highest price of the year.

On the other hand, Black Friday (and Cyber Monday) sales tend to work the opposite way, becoming more of a monthlong free-for-all than a one- or two-day event. We often see prices dropping across product categories for weeks before Black Friday as retailers court folks aiming to get their holiday shopping done early.

If you’re looking for TVs, soundbars, and home theater deals, you may also see a lot of sale fanfare ahead of the all-important “big game,” aka the Super Bowl. Brands and retailers figure you’ll want a solid big screen and good sound not only for the game itself but also for the halftime show, the puppy bowl, and those gazillion-dollar commercials. That said, with the Super Bowl following a slew of big shopping events, and right after new TV models are announced, these deals aren’t always what they seem.

Some of the best TV deals come between the Super Bowl and mega sales like Black Friday or Prime Day. We start seeing TV prices dropping heavily in spring and early summer, coinciding with the arrival of the newest models in stores. That’s because—like a lot of the products you’ll find on Prime Day—these are sales not on this year’s TVs but on last year’s. You may still see a lower price on Prime Day or later in the season, but if you want to enjoy your new TV sooner, it’s worth looking for deals on last year’s models come springtime.

Last Year’s Gear

Shopping for slightly older products isn’t for everyone. When it comes to TVs, phones, or other products on a yearly update cycle, you’ll be sacrificing at least a feature or two. For TVs you may be missing out on a brightness upgrade as screens continue to sizzle more with each new generation, while last year’s phone may leave you without the latest and greatest camera upgrade or improved battery efficiency.

Still, the best TVs at the mid-tier or higher from the last couple of years offer excellent brightness, along with support for the latest gaming features, inputs, and panel tech. That can make grabbing last year’s model a killer value. It’s a similar story with phones, laptops, and other tech gear. Unless there’s a revolutionary new feature or tons more battery life, it’s often worth saving a few hundred bucks (or more) by going with the still-excellent previous generation once the latest models hit store shelves.

As far as timing, you can pretty much count on TV and phone release dates like clockwork, with new TVs coming each spring, the new iPhones arriving at Apple’s fall event, and so on. Other products can be more sporadic, but it’s easy enough to check out last year’s model right after you see the latest one drop (and before the stock gets low). As long as you’re aware of the features you’ll be missing—something reviews and gear roundups from WIRED and other review sites can facilitate—being a “last-adopter” is a great way to save.

These are just a few tips to stay ahead of the curve when it comes to saving big on your favorite gear year-round. For now, stick with us as we dive into Amazon Prime Day coverage. We’ll do our best to help you separate the real deals from the price-hike sales. Most importantly, will help you find the best products worth buying in the first place.

Amazon reached out to WIRED following publication of this piece and sent a statement: “We offer customers low prices in our store every day. We know that people have many options for where to shop, and consistently low prices earn customer trust and keep them coming back. We’ve worked hard for more than 25 years to set the standard for providing wide selection, fast delivery, and low prices across millions of products globally. For more information on our approach to low prices, see here.