The Bipartisan ADVANCE(Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy) Act was just signed into law, and here's why this is a huge milestone for 1) electrification, 2) AI, and 3) climate change as a whole.
The Act introduces key provisions to expedite the deployment of advanced reactors in the US. It amends the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act to establish specific reimbursement rates for NRC advanced reactor application reviews, streamlining regulatory processes. Additionally, the Act mandates the NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based licensing strategies for micro-reactors within 18 months, enhancing regulatory efficiency for these innovative technologies.
What does electrification, AI, and climate change have in common? They all share a need for quickly deployable, low CO2 emission generation.
1) Electrification
- In 2023, electricity consumption in the transportation sector hit 18.3 TWh. However, with EVs projected to account for 62-86% of vehicle sales by 2030, this carries a projected load increase to as high as 131 TWh in 2030(over 7x increase).
- Heat pumps outsold furnaces in 2022+2023 - 12% more heat pumps sold in 2022, 23% in 2023. Although heat pumps are significantly more efficient than traditional furnaces, there will be load growth associated with the increase in heat pumps.
2) AI
The seemingly unlimited potential of AI, comes with the caveat of significant data center power consumption. For example, traditional Google searches take .3 Wh of electrictity, while an average Chat GPT input takes 2.9 Wh(nearly 10x). Overall, data center load(including chip foundries) is expected to increase from 130 TWh in 2023 to 307 TWh in 2030(a near 2.4x increase).
That's not to say AI will have a negative impact on climate change/electrification, as there is the plus side of AI accelerating the energy transition.
3) Climate Change
CO2 emissions by generation:
-Burning coal on average emits 1,050 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour(gCO2/KWh)
-Burning gas on average emits 450 gCO2/KWh
-Nuclear fission emits 15-50 gCO2/KWh
On average, nuclear produces as little as 3% and 1.4% the CO2 emissions of nat. gas and coal respectively. With 43.1% and 16.2% of US generation coming from burning nat. gas and burning coal respectively, and nuclear only accounting for 18.6% of the US's generation at this moment, there is a significant opportunity for switching our base load to a lower CO2 option.
Final thoughts:
Although, it remains to be seen how this Act will impact base load generation, the ADVANCE Act introduces crucial provisions aimed at overcoming regulatory hurdles and accelerating the deployment of advanced reactors. By streamlining the NRC's licensing processes and prioritizing the development of micro-reactors, the Act paves the way for faster adoption of nuclear. This advancement is pivotal in addressing rising electricity demands sustainably while reducing carbon footprints.
