Jill Malandrino

BMO SIA FOCUS NORTH AMER EQUITY ETF & BROADCOM INC. ZFN.to #ETF units are up 22.6% Year to Date, compared with a gain of 13.92% for the S&P 500 Index and a gain of 3.53% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index so far in 2024. At the end of May, the largest weighted sectors within the fund were Information Technology, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Energy. Today’s featured holding, Broadcom* Ltd. (AVGO) has been consistently held in the fund since January of 2023. It has been in the news this week around the announcements of quarterly earnings and a 10 for 1 stock split. Click the link for full report: https://lnkd.in/gJQREw3P

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𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝟮-𝗺𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀👇 📆 𝙎𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell due to deliver a commencement speech at the Georgetown Law Commencement ceremony. Any commentary on rate cuts will br key. 📆 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇨🇳People Bank of China is set to announce its Loan Prime Rate which serves as the country’s pricing reference for bank lending. No change expected. 📆 𝙏𝙪𝙚𝙨𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇪🇺President Lagarde due to speak at the Frankfurt School of Finance. Any commentary around timing of rate cuts will be critical. 🇬🇧Boe Governor Bailey scheduled to speak at the London School of Economics. Similarly, any indication about the timing of the first cut will be important 📆 𝙒𝙚𝙙𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇬🇧CPI forecasted to slow drastically to 3.7% core and 2.1% headline from last month’s 4.2% and 3.2% respectively. Any reading at or below expectations will be consistent with the recent dovish BoE guidance. 🇺🇸FOMC meeting minutes are set to reveal whether policymakers are supporting Powell’s dovish stance we saw on the meeting. Any deviation from the guidance can bring volatility in markets. 📆 𝙏𝙝𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇪🇺Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs will indicate how economic activity in the Eurozone, UK and US is keeping up with higher rates. 🇺🇸Initial Jobless Claims continue to be an important reading for the US labour market. Consensus at 220K. 📆 𝙁𝙧𝙞𝙙𝙖𝙮 🇬🇧Retail Sales will provide further evidence on economic activity in the UK from a consumer perspective. Projected to contract from last month. In addition to the above, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak which can bring more volatility. A relatively busy week with UK inflation and Fed meeting taking the spotlight. Have a great trading week! 👊 #markets #weekahead #data #inflation #interestrates #centralbanks #economy #investing #finance

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Rather than issuing 50- or 100-year bonds when interest rates were at rock-bottom, the US Treasury dismissed this option and simply continued to borrow on a short-term basis. Now that US interest payments are ballooning, the scale of this blunder has become apparent, as have the implications for future generations. #federaldebt #interest #GenZ #100yearbond https://lnkd.in/eU5FmRP2

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Proximity to the Presidential Election Presents Risks to the Macroeconomic Situation - Excerpt from the 2024Q1 Middleburg Markets Report https://lnkd.in/ejd4n5uk Chairman Powell's April 3 speech included a not-new but clear summary of the risks inherent in monetary policymaking: "The outlook is still quite uncertain, and we face risks on both sides. Reducing rates too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent. But easing policy too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment." Perhaps the greatest risk to the continuation of the current steady pace of macroeconomic improvement, however, is referenced later in his speech: "Congress granted the Fed a substantial degree of independence in our conduct of monetary policy. ... Our decisions are not subject to reversal by other parts of the government, other than through legislation. This independence both enables and requires us to make our monetary policy decisions without consideration of short-term political matters." The problem, and therefore the risk, is simply the possibility that macroeconomic conditions may change materially, for better or for worse, during the period leading up to the coming national election—and that the FOMC members may feel constrained NOT to respond appropriately for fear of influencing (or merely being accused of trying to influence) the outcome of what appear likely to be close contests for the Presidency and/or control of Congress. #interestrates #economy #macroeconomics #fomc #federalreserve #aproposmacro

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ISDA seems concerned about the risks the big banks' $200 trillion in derivatives pose “Recent stress events have drummed home that terminating a portfolio of derivatives trades is now much more complex as a result of regulatory reforms." -ISDA general counsel Katherin Tew "The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has published a new interactive digital framework to help market participants prepare for potential terminations of colleteralised derivatives contracts. In response to the failure of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, the ISDA Close-out Framework will serve as a resource to help firms and service providers prepare for any potential future stress events. In-scope entities now have to post margin for non-cleared derivatives transactions, while various jurisdictions introduced mandatory stays on termination rights and remedies as part of bank resolution regimes, the association says..." https://lnkd.in/eYkGV5Zw https://lnkd.in/ep8WViG7

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The CFTC is poised to issue (by a 3 (Dems) to 2 (Reps) vote) proposed rules on certain event contracts (aka binary options) today. Terrorism and war are an obvious prohibition from trading contracts, but the more interesting issue will be the definition of “contests” and expansion to what they are considing gaming or gambling. This seems broader than the previous concerns with election contracts. #CFTC #gaming #gambling #elections #eventcontracts Commissioner Pham (R) is requesting a broader GAO study. She also notes that she believes that gaming is a power reserved to the states and state laws, and that the CFTC is missing Congressional intent. Commissioner Mersigner (R) notes that the proposal circulated days before the meeting would have been even broader than what we will see as the voting version. She also is offering an amendment that the Commisison, not DMO, should be deciding on when the 90 day extension should be applied. (The CFTC’s approach is usually to allow for a quick self-certification process.)

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The Institutional Investor Research Survey has become an industry benchmark. This year for the first time, Al Ramz Capital is listed as a research contributor, which is a rewarding payoff for our steady efforts to bring more market intelligence to our stakeholders. Your voice is important, whoever you decide to vote for. Don't be shy and cast your vote (link below)!

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This is not merely the third attempt by Lutnick to try and break the CME and Chicago's dominance of US Treasury futures, but is one of a series of attempts by various players to do so, starting with Eurex, the derivatives arm of Deutsche Borse, as far back as 2002. Eurex launched Eurex US in Chicago that year in a bid to wrest market share in US Treasury futures from the then-Chicago Board of Trade (later acquired by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, now part of CME Group). Now, as then, I think this latest attempt will ultimately likely fail to win meaningful market share, for two reasons: 1. It's all but impossible to shift liquidity in a futures contract from the incumbent because it means shifting open interest at the clearing house of the exchange where such contracts are traded. This is costly and a monumental pain for banks and other market participants. 2. The futures markets are regulated by the CFTC, which long ago together with the Department of Justice effectively blessed the "vertical silo" model of the exchange business, under which one business controls both the trading and clearing of a futures contract - making if very hard for open interest to shift from an upstart's clearing house (in Lutnick's case LCH.Clearnet, owned by LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) elsewhere - as Eurex US found. It is this model that has allowed CME to build its dominance of US Treasury futures. Such dominance has always meant having a level of monopolistic pricing power that users of US Treasury futures - including the very banks that have swung behind Lutnick's venture - hate. And so, from time to time, they team up and back a disruptor to try to keep an incumbent exchange honest and force its prices down by applying the hot breath of competition. The same thing happened in equities trading in London when bank-owned trading platforms Chi-X and Turquoise launched to challenge the dominance of the London Stock Exchange after Mifid was enacted 15 years ago. Chi-X disappeared, while the LSE bought out the banks behind Turquoise and simply absorbed it into its own market infrastructure - although, notably, both platforms did succeed in causing the LSE to lower its prices for a time. So, we've seen this movie before, many times. Including Electronic Liquidity Exchange (ELX), backed by Citigroup, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, hedge fund Citadel and Peak6, a proprietary trading firm, attempting the same manoeuvre against Chicago in 2008. Then there was BrokerTec. Now part of the CME. Much ink will no doubt be spilled on this in coming months but at the end of the day, this is what this is all about: forcing an incumbent's prices down. Will that work? Let's see. BGC Group Goldman Sachs Citadel Securities #futures #Chicago #competition

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Please see attached flash note on our preferred Uranium small cap GUE.asx-Global Uranium and Enrichment We see strong upside in this name especially given its location and its majority investment in enrichment tech- Ubaryon. We think the market isn't valuing this at all. The comparison chart tells it all for Global Uranium and Enrichment $GUE Please reach out for a copy. #uranium  #miningstocks #ASX

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CFTC Weighs Outright Ban for Derivatives Bets on US Election The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s draft proposal would boost oversight of the contracts that have let people wager on real-world outcomes such as monetary policy, lunar landings and music awards. Beyond elections, the CFTC may also prohibit some contracts on sports and calamities such as global health crises, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the internal deliberations. The regulator declined to comment on its plans. https://lnkd.in/eBmFp3Ww ===============================================          WHERE TO FROM HERE ? =============================================== "Knowledge is the only Treasure that increases by sharing"... ..that is why I share Charts & Stats about: 💻 Trading / 📈 Technical Analysis / 🌍 Macros If you are interested in these topics, you can receive: 1. NEWSLETTER 📰 Join 1,800 others for my FREE "S.M.A.R.T. Trader Systems" Newsletter https://lnkd.in/eHcz-4Cd 2. NOTIFICATIONS 🔔 Join 8,000 others and click on Alex Spiroglou 🌍 + follow + 🔔 https://lnkd.in/efwd22Cz 3. EMAIL LIST 📩 Join 6,000 others in our email list https://lnkd.in/e2EK2r8S ===============================================

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What’s a T1 settlement got to do with it? When we talk about a T1 settlement, we’re really referring to the trade settlement for securities in the investment industry. The security cycle has shortened by a day, but what does that mean for you? When I started in this industry, we had a T+5 settlement date. This meant that if you sold something, you wouldn’t see that money for another 5 days, so you really had to plan ahead. Over the course of my career, I’ve seen the cycle slowly shorten, with the goal of improving market efficiency and reducing risk. Portfolio managers are excited about the shift, and I’m excited to share a bit more about why! Subscribe on YouTube for more videos like this one! https://lnkd.in/dwceikZq #personalfinance #moneytips #powerfulmoneyhabits #smartermoneyhabits #whatsblankgottodowithit #financialadvisor #wealthadvisor #investingininclusivity #t1settlement #marketchanges #tradeeasier #securitycycle

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CNBC Interview, in which William Lee, Chief Economist at the Milken Institute, shared his insights on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. According to him, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to make any rate cuts until service-sector inflation eases considerably after stalling at four percent since December. Despite strong payroll employment gains, there will be no rate hikes. Stay tuned for more updates on the Federal Reserve meeting. #FederalReserve #Economy #Finance #MilkenInstitute #InterestRates

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𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝘀𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗠𝗧 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀… Many have asked me about CMT charter, with questions focused on the impact that it can have on one’s career. I am briefly discussing the pros & cons of the certification in this post. The idea is NOT to criticize (so please hold your fire), BUT to evaluate the CMT in an unbiased way, as per how the investment industry would value it. For the start, CMT is a renowned certification and if you search LinkedIn, it is widely held by industry practitioners. It has a thriving alumni network, in addition to easily being one of the most interesting finance certifications to study. It is an educational delight to go through its study materials. Lastly, the CMT Association invests a fair bit of efforts to hold regular industry networking events both online and offline. This shows the commitment that the CMT Association has made, towards the investment community and furthering the cause of technical analysis as a discipline. On the flip side, depending on what kind of an investor it is, the perception about CMT varies. This is not because of the CMT designation or the topic coverage itself, BUT because of how different investors perceive technical analysis as a discipline. Technical analysis as a discipline is NOT taken seriously by many categories of investors, such as… - Long Only - Fundamental Long/Short - Sovereign Wealth Funds - Mutual Funds Now mind you, these are the funds that have the chunkiest corpuses to invest, and they won’t take technical analysis seriously! Just think- if you were a fundamental investor managing billions of dollars, would you invest based on graphs, charts, patterns, shapes, moving averages & indicators? The answer is a loud NO! You would invest based on fundamental analysis & valuation, right? However, not all is lost for CMT! Retail, HNIs, AIFs, Hedge Funds using momentum strategies & Family Offices- these are the types of investors that usually view technical analysis somewhat favourably, because of its simplified nature. It also pays to bear in mind, that not every retail and HNI investor may have a strong understanding of fundamental analysis & so technical analysis comes handy to those. So, my LinkedIn family- when you go searching for a job based on CMT, you will have a higher chance of acceptance at brokerages that service retail, HNI or family offices types of investors. However, if you are targeting trading desks at bulge bracket investment banks, they will be indifferent to CMT. If you are trying to get an entry level job at one of these desks, then you will find it tough with just CMT Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section! #students #education #equities #trading #investmentbanking #markets #iimlucknow #iimbangalore #jobs #careers #iimindore #CMTAssociation #CMT #MBA #FRM #CAIA #CPA #CA #iimcalcutta #mentoring #mentor #mentee #manankaro

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Why everyone should be concerned Regulators may argue big banks' total credit exposure is low and they have plenty of assets, but look at how quickly things fell apart for Archegos,a largely unregulated family office - sometimes it's a loan default or risky trade no one is even considering, or few know about, that can bring it all down This article is from 2021 after Archegos collapsed. "...the event underscores that even as banks have been heavily buttressed with additional capital since the credit crisis in 2008, there are players, like hedge funds and other investors, taking massive risks and regulators have little insight into their activities. It also shows how difficult it is to monitor and contain the leverage, or borrowed money, that big time financiers use to amplify their bets. One way to do that is through derivatives like the ones Archegos appears to have used, said Craig Pirrong, a finance professor at the University of Houston. "Investment bankers and others find ways to extend people credit in one way or the other,” he said. "It’s inherent in the financial system, and it certainly escaped the attempts of legislature and regulators to control for a very long time.” https://lnkd.in/e7dZeYSd

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That is a wrap on the 2024 FINRA Conference in DC. Below are five brief highlights from the two and half days of sessions and discussions: --> SEC staff reviewed the Order Competition and Best Ex proposals. Extreme pushback noted on the Order Competition one and the industry is demanding more guidance re: application of the rule to fixed income as well as a better understanding of the SEC’s expectations in general for compliance with the requirements. SEC is hoping concerns on Best Ex can be addressed with more clarity. Sounded like a lot more optimism for the Best Ex rule as opposed to the Order Competition changes. -- > SEC Rule 15c2-11 relief extended to Jan 2025 for Fixed Income securities. FINRA is examining how firms are preparing to meet the requirements and noted that firms should examine their business practices, if quotes being published, and conduct an impact analysis. -- > Enforcement trends encompass best execution cases and spoofing matters as well as associated supervisory failures. -- >FINRA has developed a Center of Excellence for Surveillance and is leveraging the full breadth of data across FINRA to conduct advanced analyses and resolve market manipulation investigations much quicker. CAT data is also being leveraged to reduce false positives and negatives. (Firms should ensure their surveillance programs are functioning effectively to keep up with FINRA's more advanced monitoring) -- > Market regulation trends discussed all centered around insider trading. Recent cases include: 1) shadow trading; 2) several working from home cases where one spouse trades on information surreptitiously obtained from the other spouse; and 3) frontrunning block trades where employee provides block trade information to external hedge funds. Many of the items noted can be proactively identified with an assessment of firm procedures and controls in the areas of trading, surveillance and personal account dealing. The mere existence of such procedures and controls does not save firms from supervisory actions absent a robust process to verify their efficacy and reasonableness. Jordan & Jordan can assist with an independent assessment to help firms stay ahead of potential issues in these areas. We can also supplement your internal resources in making preparations for the forthcoming changes 

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The BSTA: Wait, What?* A two part exclusive Boston Securities Traders Association investigative series. Volume One: T+1 Implications DTCC at the Langham Hotel with Croissants in the Ballroom The T+1 Panel: Bob Stewart and David Kirby, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), Taryn Siglain, State Street, Eddie Doyle Amundi US, Stephen Miley, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Eventide Asset Management Seven years after shortening the U.S. equities settlement cycle from three days (T+3) to two days (T+2) we are approaching a further reduction to a single day (T+1) on May 28th. Industry views range from “shock and horror, why so fast” (Trad-Fi) to “pathetic, why so slow” (De-Fi). Initial level setting clarified three key T+1 requirements: 1) brokers will be required to ensure allocation confirmation occurs on trade date, 2) registered investment managers will be required to keep records of allocations, confirms, and affirms, each with a date / time stamp and 3) DTCC will be required to anonymously report affirmation behavior of Investment Managers to the SEC. A key workflow change will make affirmations mandatory by 21:00 EST. Current affirmation rates are 90% by T+1 in full and 70% by 21:00 EST. A new ratings regime will begin with brokers rating investment managers on affirmation quality. Initially there will not be consequences for failing to comply. Custodians are expecting higher failure rates due to market disequilibrium. What does all this settlement jargon mean? Disequilibrium has an impact. Here, the shorter cycle, or even the uncertainty it creates, may cause lenders to hold back supply. In turn, less liquidity could increase the scope of hard-to-borrow inventory, which drives lender profits. The first-order economic impact may be more profit opportunity for agent lenders. This will come at the expense of hedge funds, the largest borrowers, who will have to pay more for hard-to-borrow inventory. Concerns were raised about second-order effects, particularly in foreign exchange where critical activity needs to be consummated immediately after the U.S. equities close. Further, inconsistent global settlement cycles may exacerbate the impact of U.S. securities failing to deliver. The consensus view is there will be an increase in fail-to-deliver securities. But as equity traders know, the consensus is not always right. Maybe FTD doomers have overlooked industry preparation. Or maybe T+1 necessity will be the mother of delivery invention. A concluding question. If the consensus is right we know who will benefit and who will suffer. The extent of which will be a function of how great the fail rate increases. What solutions will surface to help the sufferers? Many thanks to the BSTA, DTCC, and the panelists. Stay tuned for Volume Two: Systematic Trading Performance. IntelligentCross at a Steakhouse with Shrimp in the Dining Room. * This is not exclusive, or investigative, or a volume. It’s a LinkedIn post of my thoughts on BSTA events.

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Today's euphoric reaction to a slightly cooler June CPI print may qualify as an example of what Carley Garner, DeCarley Trading highlights here on the risks of an overheated #stockmarket #spx #copper #yen that could lead to a substantial drop for #s&p500

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