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Surveys of professional forecasters assign low probabilities to extreme inflation and growth outcomes for the United States in 2024. We believe these forecasts are too narrow. Historical economic data remind us that the distribution of inflation outcomes is wide and suggest that the potential for robust growth in 2024 should not be written off. Read more in “Tunnel Vision” and subscribe to our Library here: https://lnkd.in/dFcTkZ6n #deshawgroup

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Lokesh Sirigiri

Finance Enthusiast | Analytical Mindset |Passionate about Financial planning and analysis |

23h

Appreciated! This analysis provides a valuable historical perspective on inflation and growth expectations. The point about forecasters potentially underestimating the range of possible outcomes in 2024, particularly for growth, is especially thought-provoking. I agree that if inflation moderates and the Fed eases rates, economic growth could surpass current forecasts. To extend the discussion, it might be interesting to explore specific factors that could contribute to stronger-than-anticipated growth in 2024. Some possibilities include: A more positive economic outlook could lead businesses to invest more in capital expenditures and expansion, boosting overall growth. Sector-specific rebounds: Sectors previously hit by supply chain disruptions or other challenges could experience a significant rebound, contributing to a broader economic upswing. Government policies like infrastructure spending or tax breaks for businesses could incentivize growth and economic activity. This analysis highlights the importance of considering a wider range of possibilities when making economic forecasts. I'd be curious to hear what other insights or factors others see as potentially influencing growth in 2024.

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Interesting insights from The D. E. Shaw Group on the potential for broader economic outcomes in 2024. It's crucial to consider historical data and the wider spectrum of possibilities when evaluating inflation and growth forecasts.

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Tomasz Zatoń

I like data♾️ and dragons🐲

3mo

Has the world entered high inflation vol regime in 2020?

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George Eckerd

Research Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

3mo

Awesome analysis

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