Dave Cairns’ Post

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I say what needs saying about the Future of Work/Living. I also help teams coordinate remote & in-office Kadences (pun intended, it’s where I work and what we do!).

Recessions aren’t gonna kill work from home. Future recessions will increase WFH… But before explaining…let’s remember: - In 2003, 16% of the US workforce fired their laptops up with pyjamas on (being dramatic!)—by 2023, that number soared to 35% (118.75% increase!) - Driven by lease expiries and new development, US office vacancy is expected to hit 26% by 2026—the trend line shows no signs of behaving like past economic cycles - The younger the company, the more flexibility is built into its DNA and operating model—also, fewer companies each quarter are full-time in-office companies (Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Corporation, Flex Index) These are the dynamics without considering future recessions… Now, let’s hear 3 recession rebuttals from Nick Bloom: 1) Recessions make cost-cutting essential… “WFH reduces office costs, recruitment and retention expenses. This will boost the appeal of WFH.” 2) Big Tech say return-to-office in the news, but… “If you examine tech, which was in an industry recession in 2023 laying-off workers, it had very high level of WFH. Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon were all firing workers while supporting hybrid WFH.” 3) Improvements to virtual collaboration tools will only increase the WFH trend… “Long run improving technology will increase WFH. So each year of growth only boosts WFH, and currently growth remains healthy.” Nothing is going to bring us back to 2019: - No recession - No productivity concerns - And certainly no political pressure from city officials or office landlords None of this sh!t will bring us back… A choice-led approach to hybrid work (many just call this “flexible working”) is the future. Agree? ✊

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Chris Early

Delivering change in real estate - Challenging established thinking - Flex space and Proptech enthusiast - Radio networks enabler - Portfolio and workplace transformer

2w

Cookie cutter agents: “we are seeing everyone back in the office 4 days a week minimum”

Matt Bowles

I close deals and help businesses grow

2w

✅ The move to variable cost models like WFH is real, especially in harder times. Thanks Dave

Jonathan L. Merin, AIA, LEED AP

Thinking about your business and where it happens; focused on relationships of all kind. Let's talk. #reSTRUCTURing

2w

Here’s an interesting side effect that is observation only (I have no data). There are companies who were basically dormant when the market was hot because they refuse to pay market rate prices but are suddenly very interested in doing work because AEC prices have cratered due to lack of work. So there is a rebound of opportunities happening spurred by folks who are specifically trying to take advantage of the competition. I think the same will eventually happen in leasing. People will end up taking more space and be less bothered by underutilized space because it will be so inexpensive that it essentially won’t matter. I think WFH will still hold strong but the overall market will re-equalize.

Tony Gradwell

Strategic Foresighting from 4Sight2Insight. Consultancy and capability building.

2w

Like many similar posts of late on evolving work modes, this one nails it. Nevertheless, we'll suffer from the rearguard actions of reactionary forces whether these are in private or govt organisations.

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Lee Wilkinson

Dad | Husband | Audit Director at PwC UK, supporting real asset businesses | Passionate about construction, real estate and the wider built environment

2w

Say no more - "A choice-led approach to hybrid work is the future"

Tommaso Trionfi

Co-Founder and CEO at noro and Shared_Studios

2w

Totally. As Phil Kirschner once told me in 2020 we went through a portal. We cannot go back. Wonder why I like this analogy….flexibility is now a key factor of success.

Naphish Alam

Content Marketing Head - Building Small Business Marketing Strategies For 10X Growth | Remote Work Advocate | Leveraging AI in Marketing | Content Marketing For Life Coaches, Wellness Coaches and Soft Skill Trainers

1w

True

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Richard I. Porter

Product, Growth, Mission, Team, Service, becoming brilliant in basics perpetually.

2w

Inevitable

Glen Hicks

Freeing people to get the most from life and work. Digital Independent, Tech Leader, Founder, Author, Advisor and #WorkAnywhere Advocate

2w

Yup

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Gustavo Martínez Juárez

Scientist | Inventor | Engineer

2w

Great advice!

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