I say what needs saying about the Future of Work/Living. I also help teams coordinate remote & in-office Kadences (pun intended, it’s where I work and what we do!).
Recessions aren’t gonna kill work from home. Future recessions will increase WFH… But before explaining…let’s remember: - In 2003, 16% of the US workforce fired their laptops up with pyjamas on (being dramatic!)—by 2023, that number soared to 35% (118.75% increase!) - Driven by lease expiries and new development, US office vacancy is expected to hit 26% by 2026—the trend line shows no signs of behaving like past economic cycles - The younger the company, the more flexibility is built into its DNA and operating model—also, fewer companies each quarter are full-time in-office companies (Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Corporation, Flex Index) These are the dynamics without considering future recessions… Now, let’s hear 3 recession rebuttals from Nick Bloom: 1) Recessions make cost-cutting essential… “WFH reduces office costs, recruitment and retention expenses. This will boost the appeal of WFH.” 2) Big Tech say return-to-office in the news, but… “If you examine tech, which was in an industry recession in 2023 laying-off workers, it had very high level of WFH. Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon were all firing workers while supporting hybrid WFH.” 3) Improvements to virtual collaboration tools will only increase the WFH trend… “Long run improving technology will increase WFH. So each year of growth only boosts WFH, and currently growth remains healthy.” Nothing is going to bring us back to 2019: - No recession - No productivity concerns - And certainly no political pressure from city officials or office landlords None of this sh!t will bring us back… A choice-led approach to hybrid work (many just call this “flexible working”) is the future. Agree? ✊
✅ The move to variable cost models like WFH is real, especially in harder times. Thanks Dave
Here’s an interesting side effect that is observation only (I have no data). There are companies who were basically dormant when the market was hot because they refuse to pay market rate prices but are suddenly very interested in doing work because AEC prices have cratered due to lack of work. So there is a rebound of opportunities happening spurred by folks who are specifically trying to take advantage of the competition. I think the same will eventually happen in leasing. People will end up taking more space and be less bothered by underutilized space because it will be so inexpensive that it essentially won’t matter. I think WFH will still hold strong but the overall market will re-equalize.
Like many similar posts of late on evolving work modes, this one nails it. Nevertheless, we'll suffer from the rearguard actions of reactionary forces whether these are in private or govt organisations.
Say no more - "A choice-led approach to hybrid work is the future"
Totally. As Phil Kirschner once told me in 2020 we went through a portal. We cannot go back. Wonder why I like this analogy….flexibility is now a key factor of success.
True
Inevitable
Yup
Great advice!
Delivering change in real estate - Challenging established thinking - Flex space and Proptech enthusiast - Radio networks enabler - Portfolio and workplace transformer
2wCookie cutter agents: “we are seeing everyone back in the office 4 days a week minimum”