NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR UKRAINE IN 2024 OR 'BUST'?
This laudable proposal by three esteemed former NATO-leaders would mean going back to the situation before Russia's invasion of 2022, but with Ukraine, in NATO, not contesting Russia's occupied territories military, and been given security guarantees by major NATO members against possible further Russian military aggression.
For Levensky this would still be hard to swallow, and for Putin probably unacceptable, although he reportedly once said: "If Ukraine joins NATO, it will be without Crimea and Donbas".
For 'the major NATO allies (including at minimum the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland)', it would mean a willingness to defend Ukraine militarily if necessary.
But with Ukraine in NATO these given security guarantees would apply to all members. Which brings us back to 'So long as war rages, Ukrainian membership in NATO would make its members an active party to the conflict — something each one of them has sought to avoid since Russia’s full-scale invasion.'
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The Proposal
'..However successful, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is unlikely to change these realities, even if it succeeds in reconquering more of the territory Russia currently controls. And once the counteroffensive has concluded, both Ukraine and Russia will be exhausted — and likely unable to go on the attack for months, if not years, to come...
In that window of opportunity, both countries need to be convinced that a resumption of fighting, or its expansion beyond the limited areas along the frontline, will not serve their interests.
For Kyiv, the incentive will be NATO membership. By issuing a formal invitation to Ukraine, alliance leaders will give Kyiv something it desperately wants. In return, Ukraine would agree to seek recovery of its territory still occupied by Russia through diplomatic and political, rather than military, means...
For Moscow, a NATO invitation to Kyiv would make clear that continuation of the war will not prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. To fill the security gap between invitation and actual membership, major NATO allies (including at minimum the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland) would accompany the formal invitation to join NATO with bilateral security guarantees,..
These guarantees would explicitly extend only to those territories controlled and administered by Ukraine, and not to those occupied by Russia. And Kyiv would have to make clear that it would forgo military actions against Russian forces that might lead to retaliation against the territories Ukraine controlled and administered.
While Russia might test the credibility of these bilateral security guarantees, it would have to do so at the risk of involving the U.S. and other major allies directly into the conflict — a prospect that historically has deterred Moscow.
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🆕 Approved at the #NATOSummit, NATO’s new defence plans will strengthen and modernise our force structure, providing up to 300,000 troops at high readiness
Explorer, Investigator & Researcher
2wIt's great when refined technology and good collaboration can enhance security, serve & protect. The "uniforms" on both sides look brilliant!