After being overweight equities since Dec. '22, we are tapping on the breaks moving to neutral. We are still optimistic and tilted risk-on, but shifting focus to High Yield and Municipal bonds as we expect friendly rate policy ahead and a soft-landing. We discuss more in our 2H24 outlook for The BEAT, our asset allocation framework across Bonds, Equities, Alternatives and Transition (cash) that we will post next week. https://mgstn.ly/3WbUHB4
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October has been a tough month for local equities, dragging 2023 returns into the red. It could end up being another disappointing year. Can the local equity ever deliver the returns that investors expect from it? Read more: https://lnkd.in/e8aMw_3C #OldMutualWealth #integratedwealthplanning #wealthmanagement #financialplanning
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Over the next decade, anticipate higher returns on bonds compared to the previous years, while equities may encounter some challenges. Download these key takeaways from our annual Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook report for detailed insights. https://lnkd.in/e9SvE6wZ #assetallocation
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Equity bear markets often follow credit crises. Sure, it’s only happened a few times in the last three decades, but remember: it always holds true. Watch out for the signs: https://lnkd.in/gSU5Wyg3 #BearMarket #Recession #EquityResearch #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis
Crash Warning: U.S. Stocks are on CODE RED | LinkedIn
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What to do when equities get ever more expensive while bonds become cheaper? Momentum is clearly with equities, but our long-term expected return on US investment grade corporate bonds has narrowed to barely half a percent below that on equities, given the latter’s high multiples. Similar to the late 90s even as then HG yields rose above the long-term expected return on equities 3 years before the Nasdaq fell, so this return gap reversal is not a good timing signal. Still, to me it makes sense not to put all your eggs on the momentum force and to allow your long-term return signal also a role in your asset allocation by bringing the equity bond balance back to normal levels.
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When we analyze high yield performance versus equities, we look at key valuation metrics such as the yield to worst of the high yield index, the S&P’s current earnings yield, and instances of high yield outperforming equities – such moments have occurred historically when the yield spread between the two asset classes surpasses 3.5%. Watch the video below to learn more about the driving forces behind an allocation to high yield. https://lnkd.in/eRr-fa8R #highyield #fixedincome #MacKayMoments
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When we analyze high yield performance versus equities, we look at key valuation metrics such as the yield to worst of the high yield index, the S&P’s current earnings yield, and instances of high yield outperforming equities – such moments have occurred historically when the yield spread between the two asset classes surpasses 3.5%. Watch the video below to learn more about the driving forces behind an allocation to high yield. https://bit.ly/3RMtFhR #highyield #fixedincome
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Over the longer-term, across global equities, valuation signals provide useful information on forward returns: https://lnkd.in/gRtgXEBY
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When we analyze high yield performance versus equities, we look at key valuation metrics such as the yield to worst of the high yield index, the S&P’s current earnings yield, and instances of high yield outperforming equities – such moments have occurred historically when the yield spread between the two asset classes surpasses 3.5%. Watch the video below to learn more about the driving forces behind an allocation to high yield. https://bit.ly/3LKVwLt #highyield #fixedincome
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When we analyze high yield performance versus equities, we look at key valuation metrics such as the yield to worst of the high yield index, the S&P’s current earnings yield, and instances of high yield outperforming equities – such moments have occurred historically when the yield spread between the two asset classes surpasses 3.5%. Watch the video below to learn more about the driving forces behind an allocation to high yield. https://bit.ly/46EmwUK #highyield #fixedincome
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When we analyze high yield performance versus equities, we look at key valuation metrics such as the yield to worst of the high yield index, the S&P’s current earnings yield, and instances of high yield outperforming equities – such moments have occurred historically when the yield spread between the two asset classes surpasses 3.5%. Watch the video below to learn more about the driving forces behind an allocation to high yield. https://bit.ly/3rGJ20E #highyield #fixedincome
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Managing Member at Luccas Realty Group LLC
1wYou’re spot on about election and the markets.