When I first read Jevgenijs Kazanins's very excellent fintech take on why Cash App Pay could be the next major driver of Block’s growth, I was floored by his initially compelling case that if Cash App can incentivize more payments payments volume to go through Cash App Pay, they can drive massive gross profit uplift, because Cash App Pay’s take rate is substantially higher than Cash Card’s take rate on purchase volume (2-3x).
But if it were true, why hasn’t Cash App taken advantage? Whereas Jevgenijs is more optimistic about the ~$2.5bn in GPV that Cash App Pay has generated in its first ~2.5 years of existence, I find it downright embarrassing. That’s less than 1% of Square’s GPV after two years in the wild? And that’s despite it being essentially pre-installed on every terminal with no change in hardware required.
I started to have a sinking feeling that maybe something was missing in the calculus. And as I dove deeper, it became clear that the “magic” take rate uptick we thought we’d found was more of a magic trick, relying on some deception.
The seeming increase in take rate comes about like this. Normally, when a Cash App user makes a purchase, Cash App acts as the Issuer which means there are several intermediaries between what the merchant is charged and what Block earns on the transaction, meaning its ultimate take rate is relatively low.
But in the case of Cash App Pay, there’s potentially a few magic tricks at work. The first is that in this case, Block is facilitating the Square merchant’s acquiring POS AND it’s issuing the Cash App user’s debit card, thereby cutting the intermediaries down in the typical payments flow and seemingly increasing Cash App take rates by 35-50% (instead of just interchange, you’re now getting interchange and markup).
But then gets even better with the second trick, because if you’re both the acquirer and the issuer, *you don’t even need the payment network at all*. You can simply move money by book transfer between your merchant’s bank account and your user’s bank account in a perfectly closed loop payment network. Suddenly, Cash App Pay has a magical 2.9% take rate with no money movement costs at all.
The problem with these magic tricks, like the ones in life, is that they are actually using some deception to hide what’s truly happening. Let’s play it out. In the status quo, without Cash App Pay, Square would earn ~1.85% in acquirer markup and Cash App would earn 0.90% in interchange for a total of 2.75% in take rate. In the Cash App Pay case, Square and Cash App would split the 2.90% Merchant Discount rate they artfully charged without having any money movement. So instead of the 2-3x markup, the uptick is more like +15bps (+5%).
So maybe there isn’t a massive take rate arbitrage, but Block should still be focusing on its closed loop payment network because it represents huge opportunity for other reasons. Read the full post at https://lnkd.in/d93nkn29.
