Obermeyer Wood Investment Counsel, LLLP’s Post

While the massively better-than-expected January jobs data indicates a stronger economy, it also shows that the economy may still be running hotter than the Fed wants to see. This reinforces the logical probability that a March rate cut could be off the table.   To read the entire newsletter click the photo or link below. https://lnkd.in/eTbYfPs7 #stockmarket #PensionmarkMeridien #economy #wallstreet  

December could turn out to be something of a #turningpoint for the U.S. economy — at least when it comes to monetary policy. In the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting earlier this month, they decided to hold rates steady — something that came as no real surprise. However, what also came with this announcement was the entertainment of the idea that the Federal Reserve was done raising rates — and could look to even cut rates multiple times next year. Importantly, this policy stance (pivot?) can be seen as a direct consequence of the significant slowdown in inflation experienced over the last year. While inflation is still above the 2% target, some are speculating if the Fed does end up cutting rates next year on how this might bolster what has been a very resilient consumer and economy overall. This possible inflection point comes while geopolitical risks around the world continue contributing to an uncertain environment when projecting the path forward for the economy. The latest release of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) has the coincident indicator at -0.4 for November, an increase from our revised estimate for October of -0.7: https://buff.ly/3R8hpIb This reading suggests the economy picked up in November but is still running below its historical average — or trend, which our model estimates to be near 2.9%. This read in part reflects the modest uptick in industrial production and payroll employment growth that occurred in November, as well as a small decrease in the unemployment rate. Thus far, the BBKI suggests the path for the economy between last quarter and this has shown signs of moderating. But cast against the backdrop of the recent progress on inflation and the possibility that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, the medium-term outlook has reasons to be optimistic. #economicindicators #economicoutlook #bigdata #bigdataanalytics #economicgrowth #inflation #interestrates

The recent economic data has been very robust: enough to prompt the #Reuters headline “US economy defies recession fears.” Initial claims were below the latest forecasts, GDP came in above expectations, durable goods and consumer spending were better than forecasted, and Core PCE came in lower than expectations. So, a clear opportunity for a Fed victory lap. Instead, #Powell was cautious. See why here: https://lnkd.in/enZ4xRkt

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.

According to the Fed's latest assessment, the economy is growing faster than expected, and the labor market is – and is expected to remain – tighter than previously forecast, suggesting policy may still move higher and certainly remain elevated for a prolonged period. In other words, despite a pause in policy firming this week, the September statement and Summary of Economic Projections seemingly took a more hawkish tone, solidifying the notion of higher for longer as the economy and the consumer are proving more resilient than ever anticipated.