Over the course of this year, the goalposts have been shifted numerous times.
Market participants priced in more than one rate cut at the start of the year. Now, they are pricing in only one rate cut.
In spite of the rate cut narrative and some hot economic data prints earlier this year, equities have continued to head higher, led by semiconductors and the Mag7.
It is pretty clear that the new narrative is as such: If there are no rate cuts, the market continues to head higher for the foreseeable future.
We cannot rule out the possibility that Chair Powell might not "stay the course", which is a phrase he has mentioned numerous times in his press conferences. The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have both decided to cut rates even though they were yet to meet their inflation targets. Therefore, cutting prematurely if inflation remains stable and near 2% should not come as a shock to market participants.
If I'm asked on the sectors to focus on in the coming few months and years, it would be software, solar and China.
Breaking news: The US central bank left borrowing costs on hold at a 23-year high of between 5.25% and 5.5%. Cooler-than-expected consumer price index data for May has increased bets on a cut earlier in the autumn: https://on.ft.com/45oHuHK