Rod Banner’s Post

Over the last week, there has certainly been a lot of change! Some people see change as a good thing and an opportunity, whilst others do not like change at all and prefer certainty. For all us Brits in the UK, we will see what the change in Government will bring over the next parliament. The markets seem to have reacted positively and no doubt this will have been factored into all scenarios. However, over the weekend in France, it appears it has become quite evident with the French elections that the future is far from certain. We can only guess what impact this will have for French onion sellers! 😊 . On a serious note, I have had quite a few discussions with clients over the last week, prior and following the Labour landslide and how it will impact their investments and the wider UK economy. The article below gives a great insight and well worth a read. Please feel free to let me know your thoughts regarding the pro's and con's of change. #Timeforchange #BeTheChange #InspireChange #HaveYouGotAnyChangeGovernor #Progress #MakeADifference #SJP

"Remember Brexit? For a topic that dominated several years of British political life after 2016, and the last general election, its near-total absence from this one is remarkable. Brexit did not come up once in the BBC leaders’ debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. It did once in the seven-way debate on Friday, raised by the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, who described it as an unmitigated disaster. The silence is beginning to feel less like omission than an act of collective repression. Between the Tories and Labour there is a silent agreement, perfectly observed in the English tradition of avoiding uncomfortable conversations. It is increasingly jarring. Brexit’s consequences are now part and parcel of our layered crises. It features in the cost of living crisis – it has driven up inflation, accounting for a third of food-price inflation since 2019, according to an LSE paper. It lurks in the labour market, where higher immigration from outside the EU has not plugged a shortfall of hundreds of thousands of EU workers. It holds back growth, clobbering small businesses and choking bigger ones desperate for labour. As was the conclusion of a report this year summarised by London mayor Sadiq Khan: “The hardline version of Brexit we’ve ended up with is dragging our economy down.” #Brexit #UK #EU #PM Rishi Sunak House of Commons UK House of Lords

“Currently, the government spends 45 percent of GDP in Britain. You know, that is a pretty astonishing figure. It’s 36 percent in the United States, so you’re not that far behind. But in Britain, it’s 45 percent, and I don’t think that represents a proper free market economy.” In this episode, I sit down with Liz Truss, former prime minister of the United Kingdom. We dive into the reality of mass immigration and net-zero climate policy in Britain and discuss how parliamentary powers are being supplanted by unelected bureaucracies. “Even though we left the European Union, most of the European laws are still on our statute books. So, it’s a bit like getting divorced and still living in the same house as your ex-husband,” says Ms. Truss. “We’ve reduced carbon emissions, but that’s because we’re importing more goods from countries like China, who are building coal-fired power stations. So, there’s no net benefit to the planet. All that’s happened is we have empowered our enemies, and we’ve damaged our own industry.” We also talk about the anti-Israel protests sweeping Britain, and Islamist threats targeting members of Parliament. “There’s clearly a basis of self-loathing. The people who are on the streets chanting in favor of Hamas or saying ‘capitalism is evil’—they don’t like Britain. They don’t like the British way of life. They don’t like our values,” she said. “A lot of conservatives just think this is a normal political fight. It’s not a normal political fight. This is an enemy within our own country.” https://lnkd.in/ecQzJgPa

The #UnitedKingdom ’s new government will inherit an historic economic challenge as a result of #Brexit, the #pandemic, Russia’s war on #Ukraine and the debt burden exacerbated by all three. Inflation is just one obstacle facing the Labour Party under Leader Keir Starmer, the Conservatives under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak or whomever the country chooses. While raising taxes or increasing debt are unlikely options, there is a potential solution to Britain's economic crisis: increasing productivity and efficiency.

Your Country Needs You: The damage done to the UK economy over the past 14 years and 5 Prime Ministers of Conservative party bad governance, economic mismanagement and Brexit is so severe and so deep, that it will take the better of the next decade for any real recovery and normalization of the cost of living for British households! None of the political parties have the resources, wherewithal, political will, expertise or strategy to turn the UK economic and social malaise around overnight in the current realities, both national and global. Too often, the nationalistic tone of post-Brexit British politicians present issues requiring international global solutions as if it is a home grown British solution to an issue of global implications which calls for a regional or multinational approach to formulating the solution. The contradictory actions of an ever increasingly nationalistic, insular "global Britain" betrays those policy soundbites of seeking to grow international clout and partnerships under the insignificant forging of "international agreements" - it all seems gimmickry against national actions! And actions do speak louder than words! Come what may this General Elections we shall all need to, in the words of my late grandmother, tie our waist, roll up our sleeves, get our boots on, and dig in! Your country needs you, but this time it is not the military calling, it is the economy!

Not All Economic Shocks are Negative: Good luck to Sir Keir Starmer Now that the next British General Election has been called for July 4th, there’s a near certainty that Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party will inherit the poisoned chalice of UK government. Every news story repeats the notion of a miserable British “Doom Loop”: Crumbling public services, high taxes and moribund productivity growth. Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives have certainly outstayed their welcome. It took several years to untangle the UK from the EU after Brexit, and the status of Northern Ireland is still unclear. There has been no success in forging an alternative Anglosphere trading block with Britain linked to Canada, Australia, NZ and the US – pretty much the status quo ante before Britain joined the EU. Labour will benefit from a sense of relief that the hapless Conservatives are gone, and will likely enjoy a thundering majority in Westminster. Every government has to tweak policies to favor returns to capital versus returns to wage earners, and as the traditional champions of the latter (it is the Labour Party), the new government will have an easier time than the Conservatives who lacked Margaret Thatcher’s ruthlessness in promoting business over labour. In addition to self-inflicted Brexit wounds, the Conservatives were unlucky in stumbling through the Pandemic (hardly helped by Boris Johnson’s Partygate escapades) and the sting of inflation attributable to the Ukraine War and subsequent energy price increases. The general rise in interest rates has only made matters worse. Sir Keir could be lucky and at least have nothing worse arrive on his doorstop at Number 10 Downing Street. But he could be even luckier than that. Not all economic shocks are negative. Mrs. Thatcher was able to stare down the unionist coal miners by the happy discovery of substantial reserves of natural gas in Britain’s economic zone in the North Sea. Perhaps Labour will be blessed with an as-yet unforeseeable happy accident of history. At the least, they’ll benefit from a clear mandate, a solid parliamentary majority and a sense of relief from the electorate. 

🇬🇧 Britain Is Headed For The Polls – Here's What It Means For UK Investors This is the biggest election year in history, with over half of the world’s population heading to the polls. And this week, it's Britain’s turn to cast some ballots. Polls widely suggest that the country’s opposition Labour Party will win by a big margin. The party’s been pledging to boost economic growth, keep spending tight, rein in debt, build new homes, and upgrade crumbling infrastructure. Strategists at JPMorgan expect a Labour victory will be a “net positive” for financial markets, and would benefit the nation’s banks, homebuilders, and grocers the most. They’re betting on sharper gains for the more domestically focused FTSE 250 index of medium-sized UK companies, compared to the more internationally focused big-cap FTSE 100. And that adds up: historically, the FTSE 250 has done better than the FTSE 100 after elections, with even stronger outperformance when Labour’s made the victory speeches. Mind you, JPMorgan said not all businesses would welcome a Labour government in 2024. The party has promised to nationalize the country’s rail network and has proposed higher taxes on energy firms. Its environmental plans could mean increased regulation for water companies, but other utilities could benefit from more spending on green energy infrastructure. Japanese investment firm MUFG says the British pound could be the market’s biggest winner if Labour wins. And that’s both because it would end the Conservative Party’s politically tumultuous time in 10 Downing Street and because it could potentially usher in better relations between the UK and the European Union (EU), post-Brexit. Experts polled by Bloomberg tended to agree. Just remember though: what’s widely expected by investors is usually already reflected in asset prices. Put differently, if the election results point to a very different outcome, you can expect some serious market volatility. Let’s not forget the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the unexpected result caught some investors seriously off guard... Finimize #markets #finance #investing #invest #investment #uk #britain #elections

🌟 Exploring the Future of the UK Economy 🌟 In the wake of Labour's resounding victory in the 2024 election, the UK finds itself at a pivotal moment with divergent economic paths lying ahead. Under Keir Starmer's leadership, Labour plans to usher in a period of stability and enact crucial reforms aimed at bolstering economic growth. With initiatives such as supply-side reforms and increased public investment, there's optimism that these measures will pave the way for a stronger economy by the early 2030s. This outlook is buoyed by rising consumer spending power and renewed business confidence, signaling potential for a robust economic resurgence. However, challenges remain significant. Persistent inflation, particularly in the service sector, coupled with tepid business investment, poses hurdles to Labour's ambitions. The pressure is on to deliver tangible improvements amidst public expectations for better services and economic outcomes. Acknowledging the landscape left by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who navigated tough economic decisions during his tenure, underscores the complexities ahead. Sunak's efforts to align economic policies amidst global uncertainties deserve recognition, as they set the stage for the current economic landscape. Congratulations are due to Keir Starmer and the The Labour Party Party on their electoral success. Their mandate is clear: to steer the UK towards prosperity through prudent governance and strategic economic policies. As we navigate these possibilities, it's evident that the choices made in the coming years will shape our economic trajectory significantly. Whether fostering stability or addressing economic challenges head-on, the UK's future prosperity hinges on astute leadership and decisive action. Here's to a future marked by growth, innovation, and resilience. 📈 Let's remain engaged and informed as we witness these transformative developments unfold. #UKPolitics #EconomicOutlook #LabourGovernment #KeirStarmer #RishiSunak #BusinessStrategy #EconomicPolicy

There’s a huge, Brexit-shaped hole in this election – that’s why there’s such an air of unreality about it | Nesrine Malik: The disconnect between promises and the material lives of voters that opened up in the referendum has not been repaired Remember Brexit? For a topic that dominated several years of British political life after 2016, and the last general election, its near-total absence from this one is remarkable. Brexit did not come up once in the BBC leaders’ debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. It did once in the seven-way debate on Friday, raised by the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, who described it as an unmitigated disaster. The silence is beginning to feel less like omission than an act of collective repression. Between the Tories and Labour there is a silent agreement, perfectly observed in the English tradition of avoiding uncomfortable conversations. It is increasingly jarring. Brexit’s consequences are now part and parcel of our layered crises. It features in the cost of living crisis – it has driven up inflation, accounting for a third of food-price inflation since 2019, according to an LSE paper. It lurks in the labour market, where higher immigration from outside the EU has not plugged a shortfall of hundreds of thousands of EU workers. It holds back growth, clobbering small businesses and choking bigger ones desperate for labour. As was the conclusion of a report this year summarised by London mayor Sadiq Khan: “The hardline version of Brexit we’ve ended up with is dragging our economy down.” Continue reading... #Brexit #Generalelection2024 #Economicpolicy #Immigrationandasylum

DULL = EXCITING Putting aside politics, the widely expected UK election result and the dull, respectful and seamless power transition is a welcome relief from the constant political/geopolitical turmoil of recent years, which still continues across many Western capitals. Being negative on the UK has become very fashionable, but it remains the global gold standard in terms of a functional democratic system and the rule of law, things which are very important to investors and business alike. A new administration with a strong public mandate and long-term horizon has the right platform to deliver economic growth and unlock the significant investment into UK assets (both financial and real) which has been sitting on the sidelines since the Brexit vote. Economic growth and investment is ultimately the only way to fix the UK's challenges. The mechanics of the UK economy haven't changed just because of an election, but at least some risks have been retired for the medium-term.