Jonathan Boyar's latest makes me ponder whether 2024 is the year of small caps. From a UK perspective it is tantalising; the FTSE 100 has just passed its 40th and much comment has been made about its relative underperformance and reasons for. So why not allocate capital lower down the scale and abroad? CME Group analysis notes (https://lnkd.in/eedeEeBk) on a long term basis that there are periods of uncertainty when small caps outperform, eg, "1990-1994: during the 1990-91 recession and its immediate aftermath, small caps again outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 50%." and "1999-2014: in a new era of turbulence (tech wreck, 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq wars, subprime bubble, economic meltdown and quantitative easing) small caps swiftly outperformed large caps once again, with the Russell 2000 drubbing the S&P 500 by 114%." Currently there are echoes of 'turbulence', eg, Mid East war, CEE war, Taiwan election flashpoint, cargo ships re-routing, possible return of Trump, UK mortgage holders facing a £19bn hike in costs...and the Fed's Beige Book summary (29 Nov 2023) states: "On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report...The economic outlook for the next six to twelve months diminished over the reporting period." The next summary is expected 17 January.
A quick glimpse into our thoughts on Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. and IAC and the potential for small-cap opportunity in 2024 with Jonathan Boyar on Yahoo Finance.
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Head of Information Technology/IT Consultant
4moAmit Gulati, your optimism is inspiring. What's next?